COP30 Spotlight: Food Systems and Climate Change

Dear readers,

As the world prepares for COP30, the Knowledge Centre for Global Food and Nutrition Security and the Knowledge Centre for Bioeconomy are pleased to present a special joint newsletter, offering a snapshot of the critical links between food systems and climate change, and highlighting some of the key themes.

Without pretending to be exhaustive, we trust that this special issue will inform and stimulate the ongoing conversations about sustainable food systems and climate action.

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From 10-21 November, Brazil will host the COP30 UN climate conference. The "Conference of the Parties" (COP) is the highest governing body of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), with 195 signatory countries. This annual gathering is where negotiations take place and commitments are made. The upcoming meeting, the thirtieth since 1995, takes place at a critical juncture, marked by great geopolitical tensions, intensifying climate-related crises, and a significant shift in funding priorities.

Human activities have unequivocally caused global warming, with global surface temperature in 2024 reaching between 1.34 and 1.41°C above pre-industrial levels [1]. This is already resulting in widespread losses and damages to nature and people. Vulnerable communities who have historically contributed the least to climate change are disproportionately affected [2]. 

Food systems play a central role at the nexus of climate change, environment, food security, and intergenerational and climate justice. Consequently, transforming food systems is pivotal for addressing the interconnected climate, biodiversity, health, and justice crises [3].

Food systems are contributing to climate change

From farm to table, the journey of our food has a significant impact on the planet. Every step - from growing and harvesting, to transportation, processing, packaging and disposal - leaves a carbon footprint. The global food system accounts for almost 30% of total global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, the largest contribution coming from agriculture and the land use/land-use change sector (71%), with distribution processing, consumption and end-of-life disposal accounting for the remaining 29% [4].

Within agriculture and land use, the biggest share of emissions, in order of importance, is due to the livestock sector (25.9%); followed by net forest conversion (18.4%); food system waste (7.9%); household food consumption patterns, (7.3%); fertilizer production and use (6.9%); soil-related emissions (5.7%); on-farm energy use and supply (5.4%); and rice-production–related emissions (4.3%). Pre- and post-production processes are a significant and growing source of agrifood-system emissions in Middle Income Countries. Globally, emissions from pre- and post-production account for a third of all agrifood system–related emissions and increase as countries become wealthier [5].

Food systems alone are responsible for the transgression of 3 of the 9 planetary boundaries, the Earth's limits beyond which human activity threatens the planet's stability and survival, and a major contributor to the pressure on the others [3]. 

In the EU, when considering both domestic production and imports along the whole value chain, food systems account for around 40% of the climate change impacts associated with overall EU consumption, with animal-based products being the major contributors. Also, EU food consumption is responsible for the transgression of several planetary boundaries [6]. 

Food systems are affected by climate change

Although complex interactions of climate change and other drivers make projections uncertain, climate change may slow global progress towards ending hunger, with one study suggesting an increase of 78 million more people chronically hungry by 2050 compared to a no-climate-change scenario - over half of them in sub-Saharan Africa [7].

The world is also getting drier. Since 1990, 77.6% of Earth's land has experienced drier conditions. Drylands have expanded by up to 4.3 million km² - roughly the size of the European Union - and now cover 40.6% of all land on Earth, excluding Antarctica. This has severe impacts on agricultural production, biodiversity, and carbon sequestration [8].

Climate change affects food security particularly in communities that depend on rain-fed agriculture. Beyond certain thresholds, crop growth and yields are compromised. Accordingly, yields in Africa alone could decline by more than 30% by 2050 [9].

Climate-related extremes may drive significant increase in food prices. A global meta-analysis found that, on average, prices may be 26% higher by 2100 if extreme climate events continue. The impact will be especially severe in low-income countries, where food prices may rise by 35% [10].

Over the last 30 years, significant amounts of crop and livestock production has been lost due to disaster events. The estimated annual average loss is USD 123 billion, corresponding to 5% of the annual global agricultural gross domestic product (GDP) [11].

Food systems transformation is a solution to climate change mitigation

Land use and land use change are not only part of the problem but can also be an important part of the solution. The land use sector has a global mitigation potential of 15 Gt CO₂ equivalent (CO₂ eq.) per year, about 30% of the global mitigation effort required in 2050 to meet the +1.5 °C target [12].

Food waste is another important action field. A study based on Life Cycle Assessment estimates that the entire process of food waste generation in the EU accounts for 252 million tCO₂ eq. emissions, i.e. 16% of total emissions from food systems [13]. The recently released EAT-Lancet report indicates that the adoption of a planetary health diet (with reduced consumption of red meat, more pulses etc.), combined with an increase in agricultural productivity and a reduction of food waste and losses, would enable a 20% reduction in non-CO₂ emissions, compared to 2020 levels. Additionally, when ecological intensification practices are scaled up, the CO₂ equivalent emissions by 2050 would reach 2.75Gt, against a projected 7.35Gt associated with the business-as-usual scenario [3].

Climate financing to target reducing agrifood emissions will need to increase 18-fold between now and 2030 - an average of US$260 billion per year - to shift food emissions to a pathway to net-zero. More investment in the food system is essential to accelerate its required structural transformation [14]. However, agrifood systems (including fisheries and forestry) receive only 4% of climate finance and only a fifth of this goes to smallholders [15].

How much is enough? National Determined Contributions and the role of food systems

The COP28 in Dubai marked a significant shift towards integrating agriculture and food systems into climate action, with the Declaration on Sustainable Agriculture, Resilient Food Systems and Climate Action. This commits parties to aligning policies by 2025 across National Action Plans (NAPs), National Determined Contributions (NDCs), and National Biodiversity Strategy Action Plans (NBSAPs) and to strengthen collaboration among ministries and stakeholders [16].

At COP29, the Baku Harmoniya Climate Initiative for Farmers was signed. It aims to streamline information on climate action for farmers and support the transformation to climate-resilient agrifood systems [17]. 

COP30 will put implementation at the forefront, with Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) taking centre stage. The negotiations will focus on three key areas: aligning financial commitments between developed and developing countries, setting emission targets based on the latest science, and protecting vulnerable populations from the socio-economic impacts of climate change.

The NDCs outline actions to reduce emissions and adapt to climate change, offering an opportunity to develop food system transformation actions for mitigation and adaptation. To be effective, NDCs should set ambitious targets that address the interlinkages between food, climate, and biodiversity, including sustainable production and consumption, and deforestation-free supply chains. The UAE-Belém work programme, to be concluded in Belém, will provide a set of indicators to track progress towards these goals.

The third round of NDCs (so-called NDCs 3.0) should have been submitted ahead of the COP30, but as of the end of September only 64 parties out of 195 had done so. Based on these, a UN report estimates that emissions in these countries would fall by 17% in 2035 compared with 2019 levels. This is an improvement compared to the previous version 2.0 of NDCs, but still well below the 35% decrease needed to remain under the 2 degrees threshold and very far from the 60% drop estimated to be needed to remain below 1.5 degrees [18]. 

The European Parliament recently adopted a Resolution on the upcoming COP in Belém, which stigmatised how the submitted NDCs fall significantly short of the Paris Agreement and urges COP30 to reaffirm the commitment to the 1.5 °C target. It also emphasises the need for a policy framework that incentivises sustainable farming methods and help farmers, particularly small ones, adopt practices that increase resilience, promote on-farm biodiversity, soil health and water quality while contributing to climate mitigation and adaptation.

The Sharm-el-Sheikh Joint Work on the Implementation of Climate Action on Agriculture and Food Security is a formal process, launched at COP 27, aiming to unite global and regional policymakers to accelerate coordinated climate actions in agriculture and food security. The initiative includes an online portal for sharing information on projects, initiatives and policies, and a Sharm El Sheikh Support Programme facilitating dialogue and knowledge sharing among policymakers.

The elephant in the room: money and climate finances

Besides NDCs, the success of COP30 will largely depend on the level of financial commitments pledged. Developing countries require significant financial support to transform their food systems, and developed countries must deliver on their promise and mobilise climate finance. Emphasis must also be placed on the accessibility of finance to vulnerable and marginalized groups, such as women, youth, Indigenous Peoples, and smallholder farmers.

The New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG) - USD 300 billion per year - is considered insufficient. The Baku to Belém Roadmap, a joint initiative by the COP29 and COP30 Presidencies, aims to mobilise at least USD 1.3 trillion annually by 2035. The roadmap will explore ways to reform multilateral finance, improve access, strengthen domestic capacity, and unlock large-scale private investments. The Fund for Responding to Loss and Damage (FRLD) will channel support to the most vulnerable countries and communities with a start-up budget of USD 250 million.   

Besides the negotiation, the Action Agenda aims to mobilise voluntary climate action from public and private stakeholders to drive emission reductions, climate adaptation, and sustainable economies. It will showcase replicable and scalable solutions, ensuring transparency and accountability, and is structured around 6 thematic axes - including transforming agriculture and food systems - with 30 key objectives.

During the COP30, different thematic days are planned: on November 10-11, bioeconomy, circular economy, science, technology, and artificial intelligence will be highlighted. Food systems, agriculture and fisheries will be discussed on November 19-20.

At the Food and Agriculture Pavilion of the CGIAR, under the motto With Science We Can, scientists will contribute knowledge and innovation to the development of measures for adaptation and mitigation.

Food systems transformation is central to integrating efforts across the UN conventions on biodiversity (UNCBD), climate (UNFCCC), and desertification (UNCCD). As countries refine their third NDCs and develop their National Biodiversity Strategies and Action Plans (NBSAPs), there is an opportunity to align these plans with the National Food System Pathways.

There is a wide agreement that the three COPs are a unique opportunity to prioritize and advance actions that can address the interconnected crises of nature loss, climate change and land degradation. Food systems provide several entry points to make progress simultaneously in all areas.

The recent IPBES Nexus Assessment Report evaluates the interlinkages among five key "nexus elements" - and warns that addressing them in isolation can lead to misalignment, trade-offs, and unintended consequences. The report finds that transforming food systems to be more efficient, inclusive, and sustainable can deliver multiple benefits, and identifies 71 effective response options, including agroecology and ecological intensification. However, significant financing gaps remain, with estimated annual needs of 0.3-1 billion for biodiversity and 4 trillion per year to meet related Sustainable Development Goals (IPBES 2025).

The Report on Economics of Drought, presented at the last UNCCD highlights the value of integrated strategies under the Rio Conventions. It emphasises benefits like optimised use of funds, better systems interlinking, and cohesive national and international planning. Transformative and systemic approaches, such as nature-based solutions, sustainable land management and ecosystem restoration, were recognised as central to achieving the conventions' shared goals (Thomas, 2024).

The Convergence Initiative, led by the UNFSS Hub, supports countries in aligning their food systems transformation and climate action agendas. It is expected to drive change in governance, policy, and implementation. through cross-sectoral coordination mechanisms, Convergence Action Blueprints, and multi-stakeholder programs. The initiative will be tailored to each country's priorities, with a voluntary monitoring framework to track progress (Convergence Initiative Framework).

The Coalition on Agroecology points to land use planning, land tenure and strengthening the engagement of Indigenous Peoples and Local Communities within the Conventions and national policies as an entry point. The coalition proposes six action steps for COP30, including policy coherence, national implementation, standardized indicators, financing mechanisms, multistakeholder engagement and showcasing concrete evidence (Agroecology Coalition, 2025).

Setting the table for COP30: Under this heading, Climate Focus gathers tools for transforming food systems in the nexus of climate and biodiversity For instance,  Aligning the Rio Conventions for Sustainable Food Systems Transformation by WWF highlights how food systems can deliver solutions across climate, biodiversity, and desertification goals.

The Directorate-General for International Partnership of the European Commission has recently launched The DeSIRA+ programme on strengthening agricultural research to support the agroecological transition of food systems in Sub-Saharan Africa. Building on previous projects, the initiative will support scaling-up agroecological approaches, as well as improving the policy-making environment. It will also support Regional Multi-Actor Research Networks (RMRN) in Africa, with a focus on agroecology, to enhance the capacity of research organisations and universities on these topics.

Monitoring trends with adequate tools is pivotal. To this end, the European Commission Joint Research Centre (JRC) has launched the EU Food System Monitoring Framework, to track progress towards a fair, healthy, and environmentally sustainable food system. The dashboard comprises more than 350 indicators and supports policymakers and stakeholders in shaping future strategies and anticipating risks and challenges (Toth et al., 2024).

Recent publications by the JRC

The Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR) tracks greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from human activities in every country. According to its latest report, global emissions reached their highest level in 2024, increasing by 1.3%, or 665 million tonnes of CO₂ equivalent, compared to 2023. Land-Use Change and Forestry are one of the major contributors with a global emission of approximately 0.9 Gt CO₂eq in 2024. Forests absorb large amounts of carbon, but these benefits are largely offset by emissions from deforestation and fires. Carbon removals  and emissions  were each close to 6 billion tonnes of CO₂ equivalent, nearly balancing each other out [24].

As part of its activities to foster sustainable value chains, the JRC has integrated the planetary boundaries approach in the Environmental Footprint impact assessment method and its application in the Life Cycle Assessment (LCA)-based Consumption Footprint model. The findings are in line with the EAT-Lancet report (see above). The environmental impacts of EU food production and consumption have increased since 2010. Food systems have the largest share (above 45%) of the environmental impacts associated with the overall consumption of EU citizens, while animal-based products are the major contributors (60% of the total impacts of food). When considering the share of the planetary boundaries for each global citizen, EU food consumption per capita is responsible for the transgressions of several planetary boundaries [6][25].

The JRC also published a report including criteria for sustainable public food procurement in the European Union: how schools, hospitals, or public institutions buy, source and manage food and drink. The criteria, based on existing best practices and consulted with stakeholders, incorporate social, health, environment and economic aspects. Sustainable public procurement can promote sustainable transition of the value chain, shaping consumption behaviours and production patterns, leveraging on education. The report also provides guidance for application, including verification mechanisms and supporting tools for implementation [26]. 

Food waste prevention is a key driver for sustainability transition, as highlighted by the recent revision of the Waste Framework Directive (2025).  The JRC provided extensive support to the file, including developing models to estimate the quantity of food waste, reviewing food waste prevention efforts, and assessing the economic and environmental impacts of potential reduction targets. In addition, the European Consumer Food Waste Forum developed a toolkit to support food chain stakeholders and policymakers. 

The adoption of sustainable farming practices can play an important role in curbing the climate footprint of agriculture. The JRC Farming practices evidence library shows the sustainability outcomes of agricultural practices on different environmental factors, including carbon sequestration and greenhouse gas emissions.